Regime ∞ Engine · Power-Law signal

Blends Power-Law valuation, on-chain MVRV, Fear & Greed, a forward Monte-Carlo simulation, and macro liquidity into one regime verdict and capital directive — which you tune and journal below.

Calculating…
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Power-Law
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BTC/PL ratio
Sentiment
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Fear & Greed
Nearest boundary
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% to next zone
Conviction
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signal strength
Blend signalsPower-Law 60 · Fear & Greed 40
⟳ Auto weights follow each signal’s live confidence — drag any slider to override
Method votes

Position on the Power-Law spectrum

$—
Accumulation Neutral Harvest Distribution
0× 0.9× 1.1× 1.5× 2×+

Capital directive⚠ signals conflict · lower conviction

Mining ∞ Engine —
Fund ∞ Engine —
Carry —

Evidence

BTC / USD $—  —
PL midline $— Power-Law today
BTC / PL ratio —
—% from boundary
Reinvest target —% of BTC cashflow

Actions

Governance: execution aid — amend thresholds with partner consent only. Live market data in · your decisions stay on this Mac.

Power-Law chart · log-scale · 2016 – 2028

Horizon 2028 ⇆ drag to project the corridor further out
Bitcoin vs Power-Law corridor
BTC price PL midline Accumulation Harvest Distribution MC range

Zone boundaries · today

Accumulation ceiling $— 0.9× midline
PL midline $— 1.0× today
Harvest floor $— 1.1× midline
Distribution floor $— 1.5× midline

PL midline trajectory · if BTC stays flat

Horizon PL midline Ratio (flat BTC) Regime
Calculating…

Assumes BTC price stays at current value; midline grows along β = 5.80.

On-chain MVRV Z-score · cycle timing · market value vs realized value

MVRV Z-score — where the market sits in its cycle
Z-score Accumulation Fair value Distribution

Reading · today

MVRV Z-score — as of —
Cycle zone — 0 bottom · 3 fair · 6+ top
Brain score — (Z − 3) ÷ 3, clamped ±1
Cycle range — over the series

The MVRV Z-score normalizes market value against realized (cost-basis) value across cycles. Deep negatives mark generational bottoms; readings above 6 have historically flagged cycle tops. The Neural ∞ Engine's on-chain MVRV brain scores directly off this series.

Forward scenario analysis · regime under price movement

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Calculating…
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Custom price scenario

Market context · live supporting signals

Sentiment & network

Sentiment —
—/100
Fear & Greed index —
Network health
Block height —
Difficulty —
Next retarget —

Regime interpretation

Sentiment alignment
F&G below 45 + PL Accumulation Double confirm
F&G above 55 + PL Distribution Sell pressure
F&G diverges from PL regime Mixed signal
Network health signals
Difficulty rising >5% retarget Miner confidence
Difficulty falling >5% Miner stress
During Accumulation regime Reinvest aggressively

Capital directive matrix · all regimes

Entity Accumulation ≤0.9× Neutral 0.9–1.1× Harvest 1.1–1.5× Distribution ≥1.5×
Mining ∞ Engine Reinvest 80–100% · harvest 0% Reinvest 50–70% · harvest 0–10% Reinvest 20–40% · harvest 10–25% Reinvest 0–20% · harvest 30–50%
Fund ∞ Engine Accumulate BTC, suppress distributions, strict cost discipline Hold, keep proxies controlled, maintain cost discipline Reduce proxy risk, lock gains, prepare carry realization De-risk aggressively, monetize, consider distributions
Carry Accrue only — no extraction Accrue; minimal optional harvesting Partial realization (systematic) Lock & distribute

Institutional moat plays

ROADMAP
Multi-signal quorum
Layer Puell Multiple and MVRV Z-Score alongside the PL ratio. A 3/3 signal quorum in Accumulation provides >90% historical conviction — the kind of confidence that separates discretionary from systematic operators.
ROADMAP
Cycle position clock
Map the current block height + PL ratio to historical halving cycles (2016, 2020, 2024). Know exactly where you are in the 4-year cadence — "Day 148 post-halving, Accumulation, comparable to July 2020."
ROADMAP
Fleet-integrated breakeven
Pull live fleet data from the Mining ∞ Engine — cost/BTC, hashrate, fleet age — and overlay the regime: if current hashprice is below breakeven during Accumulation, the model flags an aggressive reinvest or distressed-operator warning.
ROADMAP
Regime-gated allocation limits
Set hard floor/ceiling limits per entity (e.g. Fund never exceeds 20% carry in Accumulation). The engine auto-warns on breach and requires manual override with a logged note — audit-ready capital governance.

Model parameters · β · genesis · anchor · corridor

Days since genesis for the PL midline.

Governance: execution aid — amend thresholds with partner consent only. Live market data in · your decisions stay on this Mac.

Decision log · local record

Log a note each time you make a regime decision. Stored locally on this Mac.